Overdue Watch
Based on Law of Averages
How it Works
In probability theory, there's a fascinating tension between two ideas: the "law of averages" suggests overdue numbers should appear soon, while the "gambler's fallacy" warns us that past draws don't affect future ones. The Overdue Watch strategy walks this line, helping you identify numbers that are statistically in a "drought."
The Drought Score Formula
Where DrawsSince(n) counts draws since number n last appeared, and MaxDrought is the longest drought of any number.
Based on the Law of Averages, this method hunts for 'Cold' numbers that haven't appeared recently.
The Algorithm:
1. For each number, calculate "Draws Since Last Appearance" 2. Find the number with the longest drought (MaxDrought) 3. Normalize: Score = DrawsSince / MaxDrought
Example:
If number 42 hasn't appeared in 25 draws (the longest drought), and number 17 hasn't appeared in 15 draws: - Number 42: Score = 25/25 = 1.0 (most overdue) - Number 17: Score = 15/25 = 0.6
The controversy:
While each draw is independent, many players believe in "regression to the mean"—the idea that over time, all numbers should appear roughly equally. This strategy caters to that intuition.
Advantages
- Intuitive concept for most players
- Provides alternative to 'hot number' approach
- Easy to track and verify
- Adds variety to number selection
Considerations
- Gambler's fallacy is mathematically unfounded
- Each draw is truly independent
- Long droughts can extend even longer
- May lead to chasing 'cold' numbers indefinitely
Visualization: Timeline
Interactive chart visualization coming soon
Use this Strategy in The Lab
Configure weights and generate predictions with Overdue Watch